The Shrinking Swing State Map

The Changing Landscape of US Swing States

Only seven states realistically are up for grabs for the Republican nominee Donald John Trump, and the Democratic nominee Kamala Devi Harris: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Each of these swings states is within the margin of error of polls with Michigan (Trump +0.1%), Wisconsin (Trump +0.3%), and Pennsylvania (Trump +0.5%) being particularly close according to RealClearPolititcs polling averages on October 28. With pollsters election modelers and pundits confident about the election results for the remaining 43 states (and the District of Columbia), it can seem disheartening to the voters in these states who wonder if their vote matters.

As a Floridian, who cast his first ballot for president in 2016, I was initially under the impression that Florida would always be a swing state. Florida was, in fact, for a long while, THE swing state, helping to elect former President George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 and giving former President Barack Obama comfortable electoral margins in both his Presidential bids. With Florida having taken a sharp conservative turn since 2016, the focus that my entire state now receives pales in comparison to the obsessive analysis that used to be paid just to turnout in Miami-Dade County. I imagine a similar feeling must be felt by Coloradans whose state was once one the “swingy-est” or Ohioans who used to brag that “the road to the White House runs through Ohio.”

Despite my initial qualms about no longer living in a swing state, the set of swing states that ultimately choose the President has continued to change and reconfigure itself throughout American history. The fact that Florida, Colorado, and Ohio used to be swing states and now are no longer ones is a testament to this. Even though Pennsylvanians now are receiving a constant bombardment of ads and text messages, this may not always be the case.

Looking at Presidential vote tallies, since 1976, on average, each state has flipped between Republican and Democratic hands 1.84 times (median 2), somewhat challenging the notion that states will remain permanently aligned with a single party. Only 10 states and the District of Columbia never swapped between the two parties.

While in the current polarization, it seems as if our current political configuration will never change, this is somewhat myopic. Iowa, a now solid Republican state, for example, was won by Democratic nominee Al Gore in the 2000 election by a margin of only 0.23% and was won handily by President Barack Obama in 2008. Similarly, in 1976, some of the states that were won by less than 3% points included California (+29% Democratic margin in 2020), Hawaii (+29% Democratic margin), Illinois (+17% Democratic margin), Oklahoma (+33% Republican margin), and Oregon (16% Democratic margin). This change can happen quick quickly as well. Arizona changed from being a +9% Republican state in 2012 changing into a +0.3% Democratic in 2020 and Wisconsin went from a +14% Democratic state in 2008 to a +0.6% Democratic state in 2020.

States with Biggest Relative Increase in Margin of Victory since 1976

States with Biggest Relative Decrease in Margin of Victory since 1976

However, this is not to say that everything is seemingly always in flux and that a random set of swing states decides each election. The set of swing states in the 2024 cycle looks identical to the swing states in 2020. Furthermore, in each election cycle, the US seemingly has a decreasingly small amount of these close and swing states. Indeed, since 1976, the average margin of victory in each state has increased by 4.3% points.

If we define swing states as those whose outcome is decided by less than 3% points—a typical margin of error in a poll— as seen in the plot below, the amount of swing states is also on a downward trend. By this metric, the number of swing states since 1976 has decreased on average by 1.04 states each decade.

The small blip in the graph below in 1984 was when Republican President Ronald Reagan pulled off a feat that seems impossible in today’s politics and won 49 of the 50 states (he only lost Minnesota and DC). However, while the number of swing states in the US presidential election is declining, 37 states have been within this margin in a presidential election since 1976 (somewhat comforting to us who want our votes to matter)!

The US political landscape has become more politically polarized, margins of victory in individual states have increased, and the number of swing states has decreased. However, while 2024’s battleground map appears concentrated in just a handful of states, the modern history of the US presidential election demonstrates many states’ political alignments are not permanently fixed.

As we head into the 2024 election, with just seven states likely to determine the outcome, it can be easy to feel sidelined if you don’t live in a swing state like Nevada or Arizona. This feeling may be part of a broader sentiment of disconnect and discontent from politics at large; according to Pew Research, only 29% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans trust the government “just about always or most of the time.” Moreover, 38% of Americans reported feeling that “people like me don’t have any say about what the government does” according to 2018 GSS data.

However, the very existence of the current set of battleground states, which all were not swing states merely a few election cycles ago, serves as a reminder that each state’s political landscape can—and often does—shift over time. For now, the country’s focus may be just on seven states, but as history shows, the states in play could look quite different in future elections.